Semiconductor Industry Cycle Judgment Framework
The semiconductor industry has obvious cyclical characteristics. Accurately grasping the position of the industry cycle is crucial for corporate strategic decisions and investment layout. In 2025, the global semiconductor industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle.
Memory Chip Prices Bottom Out and Rebound
DRAM and NAND Flash prices have continued to rebound since bottoming out in the second half of 2024, with Q1 2025 prices rising 15-20% sequentially. Strong demand for HBM memory from AI servers and moderate recovery in traditional PC and smartphone markets are jointly driving memory chip prices upward.
Wafer Foundry Utilization Rate Divergence
Wafer foundry utilization rates show clear divergence. Advanced process (7nm and below) utilization rates remain high, with TSMC 3nm and 5nm lines running at full capacity. Mature process (28nm and above) utilization rates are moderately recovering but have not yet reached full production.
